Monday 24 November 2008

UK Pre-budget announcement

Darling Darling, our Chancellor of the Exchequer, has announced in Parliament today that he is going to borrow loads of money and that everything is going to work out OK and that we should just trust him. This government treats us like we are a bunch of morons. Let’s look at it.

Consider that 8 months ago he said that government borrowing this year would be £43 billion pounds. Now the number is £78 billion. Next year he wants to borrow £118 billion. That's over 8% of the economic output of the country. The following year he wants to borrow another £105 billion. He also predicts that we will have a balanced budget by 2015-2016. If he couldn’t predict where we would be 8 months ago, how in heaven’s name can he predict the situation 7 years from now?

He is going to help “stimulate” the economy. He is cutting VAT by 2.5% from Monday. Just to be clear, that means that we will save 2½ pounds for every £100 we spend. But food and children’s clothing is already exempt. And there is no guarantee that retailers will pass on the savings. They could very well keep the money and increase their margins. I am not saying that’s a bad thing because companies’ profits need help as well. My point is that I don’t think that this will make any difference to anyone’s spending patterns, so I don’t see how this is a stimulus. What I do know is that it will cost the government between 12 and 13 billion pounds that will have to be replaced some other way.

They screwed low earning taxpayers earlier in the year when they eliminated the lowest tax rate band. They were forced to backtrack on that subsequently and rebate the money for this year. They are now extending that again, so what was the point in getting rid of it in the first place?

I think they actually may have done something positive for small businesses by announcing vague comments giving small firms more time to pay their taxes if they were in difficulty. Of course, there was little substance to the words. Do you trust them?

The government had to do satisfy its union masters and the left wing of their party and have announced a future tax increase for people earning over £150,000 per year. Clearly a political move because so few people earn at that level that tax revenue from this increase will be minimal. Of course, the tax rise is scheduled for after the next election and would only be implemented if Labour gets re-elected.

The IMF has said that the UK will suffer the worst slump of any G-7 country next year with the economy shrinking by 1.3%. That compares to their estimates for a slump of 0.5% for France and Germany and a 0.7% fall in the US. Darling Darling’s numbers are based on the economy contracting between 0.75% and 1.25%. If the IMF turns out to be correct, the debt problem will be even larger. Darling Darling actually said today that we are better positioned than other countries!

Lying Labour maintains:
  • We are better positioned than other major economies despite the comments from the IMF and others;
  • That they have a firm handle on our borrowing needs and the ability to finance those needs, even though they can’t forecast their needs even within a given year;
  • We should trust only them to lead us through this period even though we are about to commit to the highest debt levels this country has ever had in its entire history and that has doubled in just the past five years;
  • That although the CREDIT CRISIS (hint - the problem is in the name) is the starting point for the current turmoil, Labour believes that we need to borrow our way out of it.
As Guido Fawkes puts it: Gordonomics: Higher Taxes, Nationalisations, Property Price Collapse, Printing Money, More Government Borrowing, Economic Bust

The FTSE has had a record day today. But that is more to do with what is going on in the US rather than here. No doubt Labour will latch on to today’s good numbers. And then ignore it when the FTSE wakes up to domestic issues and drop again.

This is the biggest gamble in the history of this country's economics. And these bunch of jokers think that we should trust them. They aren't worried - they won't be in power when the bills come home for payment. That will be left to people like you and me. Oh yeah, that's right, I'm unemployed - hopefully I'll be working again and able to contribute to the tax reduction.

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