Things seem to be starting to come together finally. Yesterday I did a guest blog for IndexUniverse.com about my specialty subject - securities lending - and how it applies to Exchange Traded Funds - their area of expertise.

It gave me a good reason to go out to a large proportion of my contact base and let them know what I am doing. I've got a bit of a plan now for a few potential products/projects and now I've got to sell it!

This is the first stage - making them aware that I am here and give them a very high level overview. My experience tells me I have to start with anyone that MIGHT be interested. Right now that looks like 300 different institutions. I need to get some kind of expression of interest from this group. Maybe 15% of them will ask me to keep in touch - 45 firms.

Then Phase 2 - more detail and maybe some of the headlines and objectives to try to capture their interest. 15% of them will want to keep going making it 5 or 6 firms.

Phase 3 - ask them for sponsorship! That will separate those stringing along and those that want it to happen. That should get the numbers down to 2, or if it's a great idea 3. At that stage it's worth the money and I proceed.

The completed document is the final piece - Phase Four. Copies for the sponsors to distribute and I get happy clients for my website and referral business for the subject matter. Simple isn't it?

Post Budget Blues

Another day, another $800 billion dollar rescue plan announced in the US. The US government is going to start buying mortgage backed assets to get cash back into the system.

The credit markets reacted to yesterday's pre-budget announcement by taking the price for UK government credit protection to 86 basis points. For those of you not in the market, what it really means is that the view of "the market" is that Britain is significantly more likely to go bankrupt than the US, Germany or France. That will be reflected in the interest rate that the government will have to pay in order to raise all the gazillions of pounds which they need to borrow and announced yesterday. The bottom line from yesterday's announcements seem to be that anyone earning more than £40,000 per annum will be worse off. Not much of a stimulus is it? Vince Cable, a leading Liberal Democratic Party politician revealed that the cost to business to reduce the VAT from 17.5% to 15% will be £50 million. Not much help there either.

In the aftermath of yesterday's Pre-Budget Borrowing Bonanza, our "colourful" mayor Boris Johnson described Gordon Brown in the following way:"He is like some sherry-crazed old dowager who has lost the family silver at roulette, and who now decides to double up by betting the house as well"

Still, I'm unemployed - should I be better off today? I don't feel it and on the basis that I hope to be employed again some day, I am not looking forward to the increased National Insurance and tax increases that will be needed.

Today I finished writing a blog for a trade magazine that will be published Thursday. Not getting paid for it of course, just trying to keep my name out there. I got interviewed by a journalist for an article she is doing, not getting paid for that ... do you sense a pattern developing here?

Tomorrow is another day of thinking time. Today was very good as I achieved some tangible results.

UK Pre-budget announcement

Darling Darling, our Chancellor of the Exchequer, has announced in Parliament today that he is going to borrow loads of money and that everything is going to work out OK and that we should just trust him. This government treats us like we are a bunch of morons. Let’s look at it.

Consider that 8 months ago he said that government borrowing this year would be £43 billion pounds. Now the number is £78 billion. Next year he wants to borrow £118 billion. That's over 8% of the economic output of the country. The following year he wants to borrow another £105 billion. He also predicts that we will have a balanced budget by 2015-2016. If he couldn’t predict where we would be 8 months ago, how in heaven’s name can he predict the situation 7 years from now?

He is going to help “stimulate” the economy. He is cutting VAT by 2.5% from Monday. Just to be clear, that means that we will save 2½ pounds for every £100 we spend. But food and children’s clothing is already exempt. And there is no guarantee that retailers will pass on the savings. They could very well keep the money and increase their margins. I am not saying that’s a bad thing because companies’ profits need help as well. My point is that I don’t think that this will make any difference to anyone’s spending patterns, so I don’t see how this is a stimulus. What I do know is that it will cost the government between 12 and 13 billion pounds that will have to be replaced some other way.

They screwed low earning taxpayers earlier in the year when they eliminated the lowest tax rate band. They were forced to backtrack on that subsequently and rebate the money for this year. They are now extending that again, so what was the point in getting rid of it in the first place?

I think they actually may have done something positive for small businesses by announcing vague comments giving small firms more time to pay their taxes if they were in difficulty. Of course, there was little substance to the words. Do you trust them?

The government had to do satisfy its union masters and the left wing of their party and have announced a future tax increase for people earning over £150,000 per year. Clearly a political move because so few people earn at that level that tax revenue from this increase will be minimal. Of course, the tax rise is scheduled for after the next election and would only be implemented if Labour gets re-elected.

The IMF has said that the UK will suffer the worst slump of any G-7 country next year with the economy shrinking by 1.3%. That compares to their estimates for a slump of 0.5% for France and Germany and a 0.7% fall in the US. Darling Darling’s numbers are based on the economy contracting between 0.75% and 1.25%. If the IMF turns out to be correct, the debt problem will be even larger. Darling Darling actually said today that we are better positioned than other countries!

Lying Labour maintains:

• We are better positioned than other major economies despite the comments from the IMF and others;
• That they have a firm handle on our borrowing needs and the ability to finance those needs, even though they can’t forecast their needs even within a given year;
• We should trust only them to lead us through this period even though we are about to commit to the highest debt levels this country has ever had in its entire history and that has doubled in just the past five years;
• That although the CREDIT CRISIS (hint - the problem is in the name) is the starting point for the current turmoil, Labour believes that we need to borrow our way out of it.

As Guido Fawkes puts it: Gordonomics: Higher Taxes, Nationalisations, Property Price Collapse, Printing Money, More Government Borrowing, Economic Bust

The FTSE has had a record day today. But that is more to do with what is going on in the US rather than here. No doubt Labour will latch on to today’s good numbers. And then ignore it when the FTSE wakes up to domestic issues and drop again.

This is the biggest gamble in the history of this country's economics. And these bunch of jokers think that we should trust them. They aren't worried - they won't be in power when the bills come home for payment. That will be left to people like you and me. Oh yeah, that's right, I'm unemployed - hopefully I'll be working again and able to contribute to the tax reduction.

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It’s been a while – almost two weeks … What have I been up to?

Still looking for a job. I’ve had 15 meetings and conference calls in the past two weeks. Some scary vibes out there – everyone I am talking to says that trading has shrunk by somewhere between 40 and 70%. Every bank in the business been cutting staff and nobody is hiring. Oh my gawd ... and with Christmas coming!

Are there any bright sparks out there? When we get to January 1 2009 traders are going to realise that 2008 is over and they have to brush it off and get on with 2009. It’s about staying focussed on where you are going, not where you have been.

I’m feeling a little uncomfortable about next week as I only have meetings on Thursday, although my two sessions on Thursday are quite interesting. I will be spending most of the day with a firm of consultants to see whether the breadth and scope of their business would be a good fit for my experience. In the afternoon, I am getting together with a publisher who has suggested that one of their projects might benefit from having me on board.

I’m setting up my own company to do some consulting work. I am going to take a few days this week to work on three different whitepapers that I can use to push my new business.

I didn’t expect things to be easy, but it’s getting more difficult by the day as the economy slides further down the shitter.

It’s OK though, on Monday we have the Pre-Budget Speech from Alastair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The strategy for the government at the moment is to Borrow and Spend. What they don’t make quite so public is that the borrowed money has to be paid back and with interest. And when the opposition Conservative Party pointed this out, it caused a media backlash. What? People aren’t allowed to point out the true cost of the mismanagement of the economy? It’s bad form? Are you kidding me – when I get a job again – what are my taxes going to be like? Until then, the government is going to be giving money away. Where do I sign up?

On a happier note, this past Thursday night I went to Rosie Brown’s album launch in London. The music is great and we had a fantastic time. Rosie’s music is hard to describe – is it jazz, county and western, what is it? I’m not really sure, but one of her reviews describes it best: “As fresh and enveloping as morning mist – and as disquietingly opaque – the music of Rosie Brown weaves a wondrous spell.” A really great night and welcome change to days hunting for work.

Miserable Monday

First things first. The good news is that there was no bad news last night regarding my stepson's concert trip. He stayed over at the house of one of the friends he went to the concert with, on the basis that his friend lived closer to school and it would be quicker to school this morning. All makes sense, doesn't it? Unless they sleep through the alarm in the morning (Fortunately that's the only bad news). My wife ended up driving over there, and having to wake them up and take them to school.

It is absolutely pissing down hard with rain at the moment and has been all morning. Am I motivated to go out to a meeting this afternoon or should I call in sick? That's right, no sickies no pay. So I will brave the rain and meet with two former colleagues that service institutional investors such as hedge funds. They have built up a solid business that is a leader in its niche. They are going to take me through their product in depth and we will see if I can be of assistance in helping market their product to a wider audience.

I run a networking group that is for people in my industry. It's now over 400 people a couple of months after launching, and I'm pretty happy with that growth. We are having our first London based social drink next week. I also do a Friday night recap of the week's events so last Friday I announced to everyone that I have left my previous employer. A lot of love came back at me and I'm touched. (Not love really, but certainly kind wishes and commiserations.) That Friday Wrap-up has got the word out to an even wider audience, and as they say, job hunting is about networking. With that, my industry blog, my profile on LinkedIn and some of the small media coverage my departure has generated, I don't think I can do any more.

Tonight I have a conference call with a US based consultant who is considering expanding into Europe. Doing the call via Skype, and it's the first time I've done that! I am such a 2.0 techie geek.

Sunday!

The 28th violent murder of a teenager in the UK happened last night. I heard the gut-wrenching news this morning and it brought tears to my eyes thinking about yet another family torn apart by violence. I have two 16 year-olds living with me - my eldest daughter and my stepson. We are worried every time they step out of the house. So maybe it won't surprise you that the two of them were at a self defence course today on how to deal with a knife attack. A sad indictment on modern life. But you have to deal with it, so tonight my stepson is going to a concert at the fantastic O2 arena and then staying over at a friend's place. Another late night waiting for him to check-in after the concert.

After the course, the four of us had a great lunch at a restaurant called The Big Easy in London. I love ribs and this is one of my favourite places. I don't get there often enough.

And for the piece de resistance, it's NFL for the rest of the day. My team, the Cowboys have the week off, and man do they need it. So I can sit back, enjoy the games and not get too stressed ...

Except for waiting for that call to say my stepson is back at his friend's place. That's real.

For every step forward

Image via WikipediaThe whole world is celebrating the potential that Barack Obama's election holds for the world. Unfortunately there is no shortage of morons out there. The kind of challenges he faces in trying to change things are best exemplified by the comments from Silvio Berlusconi. At a joint press conference with the Russian president, Buffoonesconi described President Obama as having a nice "suntan". Words fail me (and that doesnt happen often).

Back to the hunt ... great day yesterday. At lunch yesterday someone gave me a suggestion that might lead me to the occasional, but very lucrative opportunity. He also made a proposal that will be of benefit to the growing number of people in my business who are losing their jobs. He has asked for my help in getting it done, and obviously I am happy to oblige. And then he even paid for lunch ... Result!

The Bank of England announced interest rate cuts of 1.5% - way beyond what anyone was expecting. I don't think that was anything to do with the fact that my mortgage gets re-rated in January, but who knows?

I also finally met someone in my business who sees some light at the end of the tunnel. His view is that from the point of view of traders, 2008 is a write-off and there is nothing anyone can do to make it better, so the objective is just not to lose any more. Makes sense, and anecdotally business is WAY down over the past month. When traders get to January, the slate is cleared and they are starting all over again.

Finally, I attending a really enjoyable cocktail party and had a few good discussions with some interesting people. This will lead to a couple of meetings next week and maybe even a little bit of spare cash in my pocket ... and a free lunch of course!

Today I am trying to get organised. I think I screwed up a bit and should have spent the early part of this week trying to sort myself out and have a bigger plan. I had tactics when what I needed was strategy. C'est la guerre!

I also am being interviewed by some consultants in the US for a report they are doing on the future of the industry. Best I do some prep work then!

Have a great weekend!

Hunting today

Image by fzurell via FlickrI have my PC back - no more pink Mac for me! It didn't do much for my rugged image.

Yesterday I had lunch with my former masters ... An enjoyable chat, a little bit of discussion on the US election, and we each shared our views on the outlook for the market. Most importantly from my point of view, we explored a few different topics that might lead to project opportunities for me in the coming months. I have some unique skills and I think they appreciate that there will be some areas where it would make sense for them to hire me rather than try to do it themselves. The bad news is that it won't likely be until the new year. I felt pretty good about myself though. I was able to hold my head up high because there really isn't anything I would have changed at my last firm.

I am looking forward to today. Networking and talking about my business is really my thing. I love it and I get a chance to do it today.

I have to get a new mobile phone. My existing phone is OK, but as I won't have an office for the foreseeable future I really need to have better mobility. Yes, this means a crackberry ... I mean blackberry. I am an addict and have been suffering badly since Friday.

I am having lunch with an old friend who started a consultancy in my business about 15 years ago. He has been very successful with the business having branched off into a number of different related businesses and sold out to another company last year. It will be interesting to get his comments, suggestions, ideas and Top Tips.

Then, I am following up from my financial adviser meeting yesterday. Signing some more papers and meeting up with someone who might be able to help me structure the consulting activity in a tax efficient way - all for a low set-up cost of course.

A quick stop off to help someone set up a blog! Yes, me, with all of my three months of experience behind me! Hope they aren't planning on making a living from it. I can give them some comments on what I did right and wrong, and the most important advice - Think about what you are trying to achieve before you start.

A late afternoon meeting with another old contact who runs the equity finance business for one of the leading banks. We had discussed a job earlier this year, but I was still pretty enthusiastic for my last product. Of course that was before the Lehman debacle that really crushed market sentiment. I think all banks have been impacted, so I don't really know what to expect.

Finishing off as a guest at a cocktail party for one of the consultants in this space. Don't have any idea who's going, so it could be interesting. Or not.

I am looking forward to today as I will be reconnecting with the market. However, I am getting quite frustrated with the lack of structure. I remember - and then forget - about a thousand things a day and my family thinks I am losing my marbles. I don't have anywhere to put stuff at the moment. I don't have a routine, and although that has never seemed important to me and something I have tried to avoid, I obviously miss it to an extent.

Anyway - that is for tomorrow. I am being interviewed tomorrow by some consultants who are doing a report on the industry, but other than that, I will have a chance to regroup and rethink my program.

The markets continue their roller coaster last night and this morning. Hang on, because that is going to be the case for months to come.

Tying up Loose Ends

I have now learned that I can't always count on my day working out the way I had it planned. Yesterday I give myself a 3/10 ranking in achieving my objectives for the day. Given all the things that happened around the house here yesterday I couldn't have hoped for more than that, but still it was a wasted day in the job hunt. I now have to get over it, and make sure today is a more productive day. ARGHHHHH!!!!! There, it is now out of my system and forgotten.

Today I am having lunch with my old boss - yes, the man who said goodbye to me just last Friday. Now that sounds kind of weird I guess, but I am unemployed not because of him, but rather because of market events. They treated me fairly, I really enjoyed working at the company, and hey, Shit Happens!

Then I am seeing my financial adviser because unfortunately my mortgage is coming up for renewal. Great timing isn't it? Higher rates than when I took it out, and I don't have a job ... and this is the largest value mortgage that I have ever had. Fortunately, my amazing wife has worked hard to make sure my credit rating is as good as it possibly can be. Also, my adviser has worked magic in the past. I am hoping he can do it again. This is the real world that thousands and millions of other people in the UK are dealing with.

I hate the real world sometimes.

P.S.
I stayed up until 2.30 in the morning watching the US elections. Wow, what a result! It is trite to say this is a historic event. I believe that the election was the easy part - now there is the actual reality of having to deliver. they have majorities across the board. There will be no excuse for them not to deliver on Obama's election promises. In the UK, Labour was in a similar position when they came to power over 10 years ago. The legacy they will leave behind is one that has disappointed millions of hopeful voters. I truly wish Obama all the best - it's what the world needs now.

Day Two

The second day of my alternate employment. I have been really busy, and I kind of like it. I am responsible for taking action and I did so. The true test will come in the days and weeks to come. It's always easiest at the start when motivation and energy are high.

Day One Review

So, how did I do with my goals on Day One?

• Fix my PC. The technician came over and took my two PCs back with him to do testing in his office. I did as much as I could so that is 7/10.
• Start the updating process on LinkedIn. Kind of ... but not quite. I put in a cryptic line in my profile. 3/10
• Sending out a message to my key contacts. Sent out 50 emails to my closest business relationships and a number to those I consider "friends" in the business. I had a great response and have the next two days filled up with casual meetings with various people. The feedback has been strong enough that I am going to wait a few days before sending out the next batch. As I wrote yesterday, the goal is to stay in the consciousness of people in the market. So, Friday will be my next target for emails to help fill up next week. 10/10.
• Work on the Stock Lending Today blog. Posted this morning. A little disappointed because I haven't done any prep work for any other articles. 8/10

Today

• First, I had to take care of a personal requirement. Done and back home at 11.30.
• Follow up with a few people where we haven't been able to set a meeting time.
• Finish the LinkedIn changes.
• There have been a huge number of new members to the group I run: Securities Lending Traders Network. There have been over 30 new members in the last week (Over 400 in total at the moment), and I have to send out some more info to them. I am also trying to arrange a social evening for the London Chapter. Organising an event like that is not my real strength, so watch out for procrastination on this point.
• I have joined Link Referal and The Website Owner Zone. Both of these have been really helpful and I am going to spend some more time on these sites today. Some really helpful people and comments. Thanks everyone.
• I also expect to spend a ridiculous amount of time following the US election. If you are in the US - get out and VOTE!

Another full day planned. I am sure this will sound weird, but I have been working with at least two full size screens attached to my PC for the last dozen years. I am having a hard time without this luxury.

Is there life after Bloggin?

Day One

My new career - whatever that is, has now started.
I love (American) Football so my Sunday nights here in London are taken up with NFL on Sky TV. I love it a bit less when my Cowboys get crushed by the evil Giants like last night. When I had a job, I wasn't able to stay up late as my work mornings started with the 5.30 alarm. So today I indulged, and while I am not going into an office, I will continue to do so.

I got up at 8.30, had breakfast and have spent the past hour organising all of the websites that I will need to get started with my job hunt. What are my goals for today?

• Get my PC fixed. Friday was the WRONG DAY for it to blow up. I am on my daughter's pink-clad MAC at the moment. A nice look, but not one for my professional portfolio.

• Start the updating process on LinkedIn so that people know how to get in touch with me and that I am now available. I tend to tinker with things - always slightly adjusting them.

• Send out the first batch of emails to my closest business contacts to let them know about my updated status. I plan on doing this like ripples in a pond. The first batch today will be the close ones. Tomorrow the next ring and so on. I think it is important that I maintain a consistent flow of contacts out there, so that someone is always thinking about me rather than trying to saturate everyone. Let's see how that works.

• I will take some time every day to work on my primary work-related blog Stock Lending Today. Hopefully I will have the time to do even better articles, but I have been mostly happy with the work I have done so far.

That's it for today ... the clock is ticking and the expenses are now exceeding the revenues.

A New Chapter in a Financial Life

Friday was the last day at my job. The financial crisis claims another victim and I am now a statistic. We had built and launched an electronic trading product that was best of breed and made a real impact with the customers that used it. We had a strong group of core clients from big name banks and we were getting close to the tipping point where growth takes on a life of its own.

Unfortunately, markets are unpredictable and in our case they turned out nasty. First came the credit crisis in the summer of 2007. Traders were still active as the markets were still climbing. The stock markets started tumbling down from the second half of January, and given that most of the clients were heavily invested and had borrowed to leverage their positions, trading took a huge hit. The body blow was given when Lehman Brothers defaulted. Trading seized up as people scrambled to cover their exposure to Lehman. Further, people had to review their entire portfolios and reassess their counterparties and business profiles. I am happy to say for my former team that volumes over the past few weeks have really turned around and a few customers have really announced their presence on the platform. The green shoots of recovery for that sector of the market seem to be peeking through. Good Luck!

Where do I go from here? I've got a few different objectives. First, I want to stay in the market - these are scary times, but very interesting ones. they form the core of futures stories that I will be boring people with in the coming years! I had a great experience at my last company and so I remain excited and energetic. Second, I am really new to this blogging thing, but I love it. I will carry on my other blog that relates to the securities lending industry, but this one will be wider ranging. I will write about my hunt for consulting work in the industry, but I won't feel limited by any artificial constraints. Maybe that will make it harder to get more readers - who knows? Time will tell.

Enjoy, and as always, feel free to send in comments, questions and suggestions.