Things seem to be starting to come together finally. Yesterday I did a guest blog for IndexUniverse.com about my specialty subject - securities lending - and how it applies to Exchange Traded Funds - their area of expertise.

It gave me a good reason to go out to a large proportion of my contact base and let them know what I am doing. I've got a bit of a plan now for a few potential products/projects and now I've got to sell it!

This is the first stage - making them aware that I am here and give them a very high level overview. My experience tells me I have to start with anyone that MIGHT be interested. Right now that looks like 300 different institutions. I need to get some kind of expression of interest from this group. Maybe 15% of them will ask me to keep in touch - 45 firms.

Then Phase 2 - more detail and maybe some of the headlines and objectives to try to capture their interest. 15% of them will want to keep going making it 5 or 6 firms.

Phase 3 - ask them for sponsorship! That will separate those stringing along and those that want it to happen. That should get the numbers down to 2, or if it's a great idea 3. At that stage it's worth the money and I proceed.

The completed document is the final piece - Phase Four. Copies for the sponsors to distribute and I get happy clients for my website and referral business for the subject matter. Simple isn't it?

Post Budget Blues

Another day, another $800 billion dollar rescue plan announced in the US. The US government is going to start buying mortgage backed assets to get cash back into the system.

The credit markets reacted to yesterday's pre-budget announcement by taking the price for UK government credit protection to 86 basis points. For those of you not in the market, what it really means is that the view of "the market" is that Britain is significantly more likely to go bankrupt than the US, Germany or France. That will be reflected in the interest rate that the government will have to pay in order to raise all the gazillions of pounds which they need to borrow and announced yesterday. The bottom line from yesterday's announcements seem to be that anyone earning more than £40,000 per annum will be worse off. Not much of a stimulus is it? Vince Cable, a leading Liberal Democratic Party politician revealed that the cost to business to reduce the VAT from 17.5% to 15% will be £50 million. Not much help there either.

In the aftermath of yesterday's Pre-Budget Borrowing Bonanza, our "colourful" mayor Boris Johnson described Gordon Brown in the following way:"He is like some sherry-crazed old dowager who has lost the family silver at roulette, and who now decides to double up by betting the house as well"

Still, I'm unemployed - should I be better off today? I don't feel it and on the basis that I hope to be employed again some day, I am not looking forward to the increased National Insurance and tax increases that will be needed.

Today I finished writing a blog for a trade magazine that will be published Thursday. Not getting paid for it of course, just trying to keep my name out there. I got interviewed by a journalist for an article she is doing, not getting paid for that ... do you sense a pattern developing here?

Tomorrow is another day of thinking time. Today was very good as I achieved some tangible results.

UK Pre-budget announcement

Darling Darling, our Chancellor of the Exchequer, has announced in Parliament today that he is going to borrow loads of money and that everything is going to work out OK and that we should just trust him. This government treats us like we are a bunch of morons. Let’s look at it.

Consider that 8 months ago he said that government borrowing this year would be £43 billion pounds. Now the number is £78 billion. Next year he wants to borrow £118 billion. That's over 8% of the economic output of the country. The following year he wants to borrow another £105 billion. He also predicts that we will have a balanced budget by 2015-2016. If he couldn’t predict where we would be 8 months ago, how in heaven’s name can he predict the situation 7 years from now?

He is going to help “stimulate” the economy. He is cutting VAT by 2.5% from Monday. Just to be clear, that means that we will save 2½ pounds for every £100 we spend. But food and children’s clothing is already exempt. And there is no guarantee that retailers will pass on the savings. They could very well keep the money and increase their margins. I am not saying that’s a bad thing because companies’ profits need help as well. My point is that I don’t think that this will make any difference to anyone’s spending patterns, so I don’t see how this is a stimulus. What I do know is that it will cost the government between 12 and 13 billion pounds that will have to be replaced some other way.

They screwed low earning taxpayers earlier in the year when they eliminated the lowest tax rate band. They were forced to backtrack on that subsequently and rebate the money for this year. They are now extending that again, so what was the point in getting rid of it in the first place?

I think they actually may have done something positive for small businesses by announcing vague comments giving small firms more time to pay their taxes if they were in difficulty. Of course, there was little substance to the words. Do you trust them?

The government had to do satisfy its union masters and the left wing of their party and have announced a future tax increase for people earning over £150,000 per year. Clearly a political move because so few people earn at that level that tax revenue from this increase will be minimal. Of course, the tax rise is scheduled for after the next election and would only be implemented if Labour gets re-elected.

The IMF has said that the UK will suffer the worst slump of any G-7 country next year with the economy shrinking by 1.3%. That compares to their estimates for a slump of 0.5% for France and Germany and a 0.7% fall in the US. Darling Darling’s numbers are based on the economy contracting between 0.75% and 1.25%. If the IMF turns out to be correct, the debt problem will be even larger. Darling Darling actually said today that we are better positioned than other countries!

Lying Labour maintains:

• We are better positioned than other major economies despite the comments from the IMF and others;
• That they have a firm handle on our borrowing needs and the ability to finance those needs, even though they can’t forecast their needs even within a given year;
• We should trust only them to lead us through this period even though we are about to commit to the highest debt levels this country has ever had in its entire history and that has doubled in just the past five years;
• That although the CREDIT CRISIS (hint - the problem is in the name) is the starting point for the current turmoil, Labour believes that we need to borrow our way out of it.

As Guido Fawkes puts it: Gordonomics: Higher Taxes, Nationalisations, Property Price Collapse, Printing Money, More Government Borrowing, Economic Bust

The FTSE has had a record day today. But that is more to do with what is going on in the US rather than here. No doubt Labour will latch on to today’s good numbers. And then ignore it when the FTSE wakes up to domestic issues and drop again.

This is the biggest gamble in the history of this country's economics. And these bunch of jokers think that we should trust them. They aren't worried - they won't be in power when the bills come home for payment. That will be left to people like you and me. Oh yeah, that's right, I'm unemployed - hopefully I'll be working again and able to contribute to the tax reduction.

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It’s been a while – almost two weeks … What have I been up to?

Still looking for a job. I’ve had 15 meetings and conference calls in the past two weeks. Some scary vibes out there – everyone I am talking to says that trading has shrunk by somewhere between 40 and 70%. Every bank in the business been cutting staff and nobody is hiring. Oh my gawd ... and with Christmas coming!

Are there any bright sparks out there? When we get to January 1 2009 traders are going to realise that 2008 is over and they have to brush it off and get on with 2009. It’s about staying focussed on where you are going, not where you have been.

I’m feeling a little uncomfortable about next week as I only have meetings on Thursday, although my two sessions on Thursday are quite interesting. I will be spending most of the day with a firm of consultants to see whether the breadth and scope of their business would be a good fit for my experience. In the afternoon, I am getting together with a publisher who has suggested that one of their projects might benefit from having me on board.

I’m setting up my own company to do some consulting work. I am going to take a few days this week to work on three different whitepapers that I can use to push my new business.

I didn’t expect things to be easy, but it’s getting more difficult by the day as the economy slides further down the shitter.

It’s OK though, on Monday we have the Pre-Budget Speech from Alastair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The strategy for the government at the moment is to Borrow and Spend. What they don’t make quite so public is that the borrowed money has to be paid back and with interest. And when the opposition Conservative Party pointed this out, it caused a media backlash. What? People aren’t allowed to point out the true cost of the mismanagement of the economy? It’s bad form? Are you kidding me – when I get a job again – what are my taxes going to be like? Until then, the government is going to be giving money away. Where do I sign up?

On a happier note, this past Thursday night I went to Rosie Brown’s album launch in London. The music is great and we had a fantastic time. Rosie’s music is hard to describe – is it jazz, county and western, what is it? I’m not really sure, but one of her reviews describes it best: “As fresh and enveloping as morning mist – and as disquietingly opaque – the music of Rosie Brown weaves a wondrous spell.” A really great night and welcome change to days hunting for work.

Miserable Monday

First things first. The good news is that there was no bad news last night regarding my stepson's concert trip. He stayed over at the house of one of the friends he went to the concert with, on the basis that his friend lived closer to school and it would be quicker to school this morning. All makes sense, doesn't it? Unless they sleep through the alarm in the morning (Fortunately that's the only bad news). My wife ended up driving over there, and having to wake them up and take them to school.

It is absolutely pissing down hard with rain at the moment and has been all morning. Am I motivated to go out to a meeting this afternoon or should I call in sick? That's right, no sickies no pay. So I will brave the rain and meet with two former colleagues that service institutional investors such as hedge funds. They have built up a solid business that is a leader in its niche. They are going to take me through their product in depth and we will see if I can be of assistance in helping market their product to a wider audience.

I run a networking group that is for people in my industry. It's now over 400 people a couple of months after launching, and I'm pretty happy with that growth. We are having our first London based social drink next week. I also do a Friday night recap of the week's events so last Friday I announced to everyone that I have left my previous employer. A lot of love came back at me and I'm touched. (Not love really, but certainly kind wishes and commiserations.) That Friday Wrap-up has got the word out to an even wider audience, and as they say, job hunting is about networking. With that, my industry blog, my profile on LinkedIn and some of the small media coverage my departure has generated, I don't think I can do any more.

Tonight I have a conference call with a US based consultant who is considering expanding into Europe. Doing the call via Skype, and it's the first time I've done that! I am such a 2.0 techie geek.

Sunday!

The 28th violent murder of a teenager in the UK happened last night. I heard the gut-wrenching news this morning and it brought tears to my eyes thinking about yet another family torn apart by violence. I have two 16 year-olds living with me - my eldest daughter and my stepson. We are worried every time they step out of the house. So maybe it won't surprise you that the two of them were at a self defence course today on how to deal with a knife attack. A sad indictment on modern life. But you have to deal with it, so tonight my stepson is going to a concert at the fantastic O2 arena and then staying over at a friend's place. Another late night waiting for him to check-in after the concert.

After the course, the four of us had a great lunch at a restaurant called The Big Easy in London. I love ribs and this is one of my favourite places. I don't get there often enough.

And for the piece de resistance, it's NFL for the rest of the day. My team, the Cowboys have the week off, and man do they need it. So I can sit back, enjoy the games and not get too stressed ...

Except for waiting for that call to say my stepson is back at his friend's place. That's real.

For every step forward

Image via WikipediaThe whole world is celebrating the potential that Barack Obama's election holds for the world. Unfortunately there is no shortage of morons out there. The kind of challenges he faces in trying to change things are best exemplified by the comments from Silvio Berlusconi. At a joint press conference with the Russian president, Buffoonesconi described President Obama as having a nice "suntan". Words fail me (and that doesnt happen often).

Back to the hunt ... great day yesterday. At lunch yesterday someone gave me a suggestion that might lead me to the occasional, but very lucrative opportunity. He also made a proposal that will be of benefit to the growing number of people in my business who are losing their jobs. He has asked for my help in getting it done, and obviously I am happy to oblige. And then he even paid for lunch ... Result!

The Bank of England announced interest rate cuts of 1.5% - way beyond what anyone was expecting. I don't think that was anything to do with the fact that my mortgage gets re-rated in January, but who knows?

I also finally met someone in my business who sees some light at the end of the tunnel. His view is that from the point of view of traders, 2008 is a write-off and there is nothing anyone can do to make it better, so the objective is just not to lose any more. Makes sense, and anecdotally business is WAY down over the past month. When traders get to January, the slate is cleared and they are starting all over again.

Finally, I attending a really enjoyable cocktail party and had a few good discussions with some interesting people. This will lead to a couple of meetings next week and maybe even a little bit of spare cash in my pocket ... and a free lunch of course!

Today I am trying to get organised. I think I screwed up a bit and should have spent the early part of this week trying to sort myself out and have a bigger plan. I had tactics when what I needed was strategy. C'est la guerre!

I also am being interviewed by some consultants in the US for a report they are doing on the future of the industry. Best I do some prep work then!

Have a great weekend!